Petr Jedlička: Bomb, Roller Coaster, Tree, and Mistletoe? Toward an Adequate Model of Technological Progress

Invitation.pdf

Petr Jedlička: Bomb, Roller Coaster, Tree, and Mistletoe? Toward an Adequate Model of Technological Progress

Abstract
Most existing AI x-risk scenarios are technodeterministic and downplay social dynamics, making them less plausible as forecasts. I argue that social actors and their agency are central to how AI futures unfold. This neglect also permeates current debates on acceleration, where models often underestimate the possibility of slowdown, stasis, or even reversal in technological progress—outcomes that could preclude an AI singularity. Once social factors are accounted for, a social singularity is more likely to emerge, independent of a purely technological singularity.